The End Of Desire: How The Consumer Landscape Has Changed Forever

Henry’s career began as a chef, journalist and strategy consultant before co‑founding and leading LEON as CEO. As lead non‑executive at DEFRA, he authored the landmark National Food Strategy, the first independent ‘farm‑to‑fork’ review in nearly 75 years, which has significantly shaped policy and industry thinking.

Hosted by Odgers’ Harriott Brigden and colleagues in the Consumer, Retail, Travel, Leisure & Hospitality team, Henry’s core argument during the event’s discussion was clear and provocative: consumer behaviour in food is going to change more in the next three years than it has in the last 30. This is not a gradual evolution but a step-change, describing it as a “meteor” heading towards the industry. He argued this will quickly and significantly alter where profits are made, drawing a distinct line between winners and losers.

Consumers are already ahead of the industry

A key insight was the idea that consumers are often more informed and engaged than the sector itself. Henry explained that in 2020, people widely saw healthy eating as difficult, confusing and something they were failing at.  

His example showed that some are even using tools like ChatGPT to diagnose issues and improve their health. The broader message is clear: many consumers are now as knowledgeable, if not more so, than the businesses serving them.

The three major forces of disruption driving the change

1. The rise in appetite suppressant drugs. In Henry’s view, the speed of their uptake will profoundly reshape consumption with potentially catastrophic consequences for parts of the industry. Overall food volumes are expected to decline with their use, with around a 5% volume reduction across categories but with greater impacts on margins for businesses focusing on low-cost and high-volume calories. Organisations will need to either win share, enhance their offer or expand into non-food revenue streams.
2. Growth in consumer knowledge. Consumers are now more aware of what they eat and increasingly motivated to change it. With a growing majority aiming to reduce processed foods, health is quickly joining price, taste and convenience as a primary driver of decisions. In effect, health has moved from a secondary concern to a core part of how people choose food.
3. The increase of personal health data. From home testing to wearables, consumers can now can easily measure diet impact in real time, further accelerating behavioural change. Food choices are no longer abstract or delayed in their impact; they are becoming immediate, measurable and highly personal.

Taken together, these three forces raise a much bigger question: where does the value move next?

Shifts in value creation 

Henry explored several implications across the ecosystem. In retail, AI is likely to play a growing role in guiding consumer choices. However, he argued that AI models will inevitably become “editorialised” when it comes to health, meaning they will take a position on what is good or bad, rather than remaining neutral.  

This has significant implications for brands and manufacturers, who may lose some control over how their products are presented and recommended.

What this means for leadership 

The direction is clear. Leaders need to understand how their current portfolio stands up in a more health-focused world, stay close to rapidly evolving customer behaviour and be clear on the signals or “triggers” that would require them to act. Agility may matter more than scale, with smaller, more flexible businesses potentially better placed to respond than larger, slower-moving organisations. 

Odgers’ Consumer, Retail, Travel, Leisure & Hospitality Practice would like to extend our warmest thanks to Henry for his speech and engagement in the discussion. 

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